Kim Jong-un
has visited the test site for a new weapon in his first publicised ‘field inspection’, since the Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile test on the 29th
of November last year. The test was successful and according to the North
Korean News Agency, the weapon will act as a “steel wall” of protection.
However, due
to the understated announcement of the success of the test, it is speculated by
the Asian Institute of Policy, that the publicised inspection is more likely a
demonstration to a dissatisfied military that North Korea is focussing on ‘becoming
high tech’ and is still determined to increase their military capacity, rather
than a sabotage of diplomatic talks.
Having said
that, the test could also be motivated by the recent joint military drills
between the US and South Korea which North Korea claimed were violations of the
pacts to end all “hostile acts.”
Whatever
the motivations of the inspections this will surely exacerbate tensions between
the US and North Korea. US has said they will not ease
international sanctions unless North Korea takes definitive steps towards denuclearisation
whilst North Korea has threatened to restart its nuclear
program if the sanctions aren’t eased. In September of this this year North
Korea’s Foreign Minister, Ri Yong-ho stated at the UN General Assembly
that there was ‘no way’ that they would ‘unilaterally disarm ourselves’,
without reciprocation from the US in the form of eased
international sanctions.
Despite
Donald Trump’s tweet after the summit with Kim Jong-un of on the 16th
of June earlier this year that “there is no longer a nuclear threat from North
Korea”, analysts from the CIA and other intelligence agencies say that the
regime is trying to get every concession it can
from the
Trump administration whilst clinging onto the nuclear weapons it believes are essential
for it’s survival.
Trump’s
eagerness to pretend that he has fixed the North Korea conflict during the summit,
despite only managing to make North Korea “work toward” denuclearisation, with
no fixed timeline or specifics, was shown again when he criticised “inaccurate”
reports from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies that North
Korea has an estimated 20 secret missile bases. Diplomacy has apparently ground
to halt with North Korea abruptly calling off a new round of negations in New
York with the US’s secretary of State Mike Pompeo. The US publicly stated that
this was due to scheduling issues, but the cancellation was followed by threats
from North Korean officials to resume nuclear and missile testing unless US
sanctions are lifted.
 |
| One of the Missile sites photographed by the Centre for Strategic and International studies, this is the closest site to the border with South Korea and was described as being "active and reasonably well maintained." The largest site is believed to be in striking distance of the US. |
US Vice
President Mike Pence has said that Trump will meet with Kim Jong-un in 2019 to
push for a more concrete plan outlining North Korea’s disarmament programs.
This is a
clear example of international conflict. How President Trump reacts to this
public display of military power could result in North Korea stopping
diplomatic talks and starting their nuclear program again (although, let’s be
honest they won’t really be starting it again, they’ll just stop hiding it).
This could then result in an international war if North Korea begins
threatening to use nuclear weapons and the US retaliates.
Although I
don’t think this will happen (famous last words), Trump’s reaction is crucial
to maintaining peace and avoiding international conflict. He isn’t famous for
his level headedness so his reaction might trigger a shutting down of diplomatic
talks with North Korea which will
be disastrous
for South Korea who have only recently begun a closer relationship with the isolated
nation.
Original article
Further reading
This video is around 5 months old so it is a bit outdated, but it gives a good outline of what 'denuclearisation' means for both countries.
North Korea is still making nukes, and the US is taking a harder line
North Korea is still making nukes, and the US is taking a harder line
Comments
Post a Comment