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| A map of the Black sea and the Sea of Azov. The Ukrainian ships were sailing from a port in Odessa to one in Mariupol but got intercepted in the strait of Kerch by the Russian Federal Security Service. |
Ukraine’s parliament
has overwhelmingly voted to support President Petro Poroshenko’s motion to impose
martial law for 30 days, following an incident near the Russia-occupied Crimea
when Russian border guards opened fire and on three Ukrainian navy vessels sailing into the Kerch strait before seizing the ships and crews. Several Ukrainian
sailors were injured in a major escalation of the Russian-Ukraine conflict.
Western leaders have widely condemned Russia’s actions but have called for de-escalation
on both sides.
This incident
is just the cauldron finally boiling over after years of tension and violence. The
conflict really started in 2014, when Poroshenko was elected. He was heading an
assertive, pro-western government who were turning their backs on Russia and
looking to NATO and the West for trade and protection. Russia didn’t like this
and so they backed separatist movements in Donetsk and Luhansk in Eastern Ukraine
and also annexed the strategically located Crimea. Crimea was physically cut
off from the mainland from the Kerch strait which connects the Sea of Azov and
the Black Sea, so Vladimir Putin commissioned the building of a bridge over the
Kerch strait to connect Crimea with the mainland which opened earlier this year.
This bridge, as well as a cargo ship, physically prevented Ukrainian navy boats
attempting to cross from the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov, as the strait is the
only route between the two seas.
Russia said
that the Ukrainian ships illegally crossed into Russian waters, however Ukraine’s
ambassador to the UN told the security council this was an “outright lie”,
siting a 2003 treaty between the two nations granting both unimpeded access to
the Kerch Strait and the Sea of Azov. Ukrainian authorities also said that they
had given advanced notice to Russia that the vessels would be moving through
the strait. Dmitry Polyanskiy, Russia’s deputy permanent representative to the
UN told the security council that Ukraine was trying to provoke Russia for
political purposes and that Petro Poroshenko needed a war to gain support for
the upcoming elections.
Poroshenko’s
critics in Ukraine agreed with Polyanskiy that the motivation for introducing
Martial law may be political. Deputy Speaker Oksana Syroid noted that martial
law was not introduced during 2014 or 2015, when large scale fighting took
place in Eastern Ukraine due to the Separatist movements in Donetsk and Luhansk.
Poroshenko’s popularity has taken a dive and many critics were suspicious that
he may have only introduced martial law because it could mean the postponement
of the Presidential elections which are due to be held in March.
However,
Poroshenko tried to quell those suspicions by lowering the proposal from a 60
day, to a 30 day period and assuring NATO Secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg
that martial law would “hinder the working” of the 2019 election.
Martial law
would include partial mobilisiation and strengthening of the country’s air defense
and strengthening anti-terrorism measures and information security. However it will apparently only effect areas bordering Russia, Belarus and Moldova's breakaway republic of Trans-Dniester. Poroshenko
stressed that “Martial law doesn’t mean declaring war” and said that it was
only necessary because of Russia’s “growing aggression” towards Ukraine.
This is a turning
point in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. With Russia holding the ships
it has impounded, Ukraine’s navy is split, with half situated in the Sea of
Azov and half in the Black sea, neither half can support the other. Poroshenko
was vague in his speech so it is unclear what the Ukrainian Government or its
military is capable or willing to do. However, it seems impossible that Ukraine
could force itself through the Kerch strait as any attempt to challenge Russia
would be met with massive force.
Ukraine may
retaliate in the form of renewed military commitment to the conflicts in Eastern
Ukraine which have been locked in a military stalemate for years. This renewed
support from the Ukrainian government might mean Russia would boost its
commitment to the separatist movements.
The problem
for Ukraine is that any push for increased control in the East would be met
with an even stronger military responce from Russia, which might result in more
land being lost.
Time will
only tell how strong Ukraine’s reaction will be, but this has the looks of
something which could easily spiral out of control and spark a fully-fledged
conflict.
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